Showing posts with label Middel East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middel East. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 October 2011

Looking back at Libya

The Libyan war looks like it will cost over £1.7 billion! It's a costly amount but worth while in my opinion. I've always been on the side of the war in Libya, this is why.
Opposed to the other wars in the Middle East the Libya conflict was against a clear foe and with the support of the majority. In the war in Afghanistan the US an its allies took sides with the Northern Alliance that had been in civil war with the Taliban, then quickly ended the current government and replaced it with this new government of militants and war lords. There was little control, it was poorly managed and the Taliban were turned from being in power to being nothing then re-emerging as a hard core terrorist organization with the new Afghanistan government being utterly corrupt and huge division in the country. In the Libyan war it was not power hungry war lords that were seeking to over throw Gaddafi but normal citizens. Equally the support for Gaddafi was relatively small if the country was united then it would not have huge sections of the population that would instantly be cast out.
Another key factor was that we didn't land troops or 'wage war' on Gaddafi, instead our approach was to give the rebels the military backing they couldn't possibly must them selves. 'lending' air support to the rebels helped them counter Gaddafi in ways that they couldn't have done other wise.
Yes we did intervene and while there is no denying that we went further than simply protecting civilians and actually removed the Government, yet there is also no denying if we hadn't intervened then there would have been far worse atrocities. The hidden mass graves slowly being uncovered are tell us that.

If we don't intervene then we become isolationist, if we had just kept our selves to our selves and let it sort out then what kind of country would we be. The people of Libya were asking for our help. I find it hard to tolerate the opinion that we have budget problems so we shouldn't save tens of thousands of lives. Isolationism militarily, politically and economically only leads to war, oppression and economic depression.
I accept that greed played a part in driving this war, oil! I guess to be an economist is to accept that greed can sometimes bring about good, capitalism is built on greed and while there is no doubt ( to most sane people) that unbridled capitalism has huge costs and the beast of greed must be controlled through intervention, along the way it creates great things.
I'm not being naive there are a lot of problems in Libya, a revolution causes lasting damage to a country. First of course being that Gaddafi isn't dead, there is still a risk of Gaddafi extremists but as we've seen actually so far this appears to minimal if existent at all? The biggest problem is of course that their is now an entire country flooded with arms! As a matter of fact the fact that Gaddafi is still fighting has some advantages, it channels the violence at an enemy, it's giving the transitional council time to prepare for when its all over and they need to deal with controlling the country. Essentially the fact that fighting is still going on means the council has yet to deal with it, all though of course I'm sure everyone is hoping that Gaddafi's supporters give up soon. Another risk is the council may also struggle to keep a fair open democracy going. The problem that new countries often end up falling back into the old traps of dictators is a very real risk for Libya although they have an key advantage, the support of powerful nations. Libya is now a close ally to Europe and is located near to Europe. It's quiet developed and willing to be democratic. There's reason to be hopeful.

Looking back at Libya it shows that while war is generally wrong, sometimes correctly managed and well executed with a bit of luck thrown in, it can be a really help to people. Still this doesn't mean we should be bombing the middle east until we've made it more westernized! Every siduation is different, were fortunate that in this case we actually got it relatively right  and made a difference.
Cameron looking smug

Thursday, 10 March 2011

Libya

Since the protests in Tunisia sparked up the events middle east I have watched very closely. Tunisia and Egypt saw their undesirable leaders fall but it is Libya where the greatest struggle is. Not in my life time have I seen anything I would consider to show as many examples of bravery, courage, determination and passion as in Libya. Its very all too easy to place the label of good and bad onto each side in Libya, Col Gaddafi seems to be epitome of villainy.
Gaddafi's regime was the classic dictator model of Police State, State TV and keep your subjects in horror and awe. The fact is that those on the streets of Tripoli supporting Gaddafi actually appear to believe that he is saving them from Western Colonists that are funding an al qaeda rebellion to take their oil! While that is not evil its just staggering ignorance, it does mean that Gaddafi's supporters don't really have a grasp on the situation and thus surely it is the rebels liberating them not Gaddafi. We should consider though that from their perspective Gaddafi did drive out their King and considering the controversy surrounding Iraq and general behaviour of oil companies it becomes more plausible that with state media that these people could believe Gaddafi's nutty account of events. Gaddafi feeds his supporters tales of mighty victories against the rebels which so far have mostly lies!
Gaddafi told 'his people' that he had taken the oil town of Ras Lanuf when in fact it was still under rebel control and declared Zawiya liberated when it had been levelled to the ground it reports suggest rebels still remain. In fact when the BBC attempted to visit Zawiya 3 reporters were beaten up to the point of death and thrown on a flight home...
Gaddafi's forces are killing civilians, beating up news crews, they have superior fire power and most of them are violent gangs or mercenaries. The rebels have some basic weapons, a few stolen tanks, toyota pick up trucks but more importantly resolve! Holding Ras Lanuf and Zuara against the odds day after day is a miracle yet I fear it may not last. Zuara and Ras Lanuf are under huge pressure now from land and air, there is only one clear solution... intervention.
To intervene or not to intervene, is a question that up until Gaddafi started bombing his own people was hard to answer, it is now a question with a more obvious answer; no fly zone. We have frozen Gaddafi's assets and demanded his resignation to response, so we should now impose a no fly zone. Of course there are problems with this, such as having to bomb Gaddafi's air felids and it is claimed that it could alienate some rebels and Eastern leaders, these seem to be fading. The rebel government in Benghazi appears to be asking for it, Saudi Arabia and the Islamic council approve, France and the UK are pushing for it and the USA is hinting so why have we not imposed it! A no fly zone would simply rob Gaddafi of his unfair advantage, its not sending in troops.
It seems to me to be out-ragious that we sitting just off the Libyan coast with the power to stop Gaddafi yet we do nothing, Gaddafi is murdering his own people with arms we sold him and hired troops with money we helped him accumulate. If we don't move quickly the rebels could loose and I would never forgive the British Government for that, we're willing to take money from the expoliations of the Libyan people but then not give a damn when they are fighting for the very principles we are supposed to be promoting. On another not, its interesting how quick we run to America when they propose military intervention but when we bring an idea to the table that doesn't involve sending in troops to conquer a country they won't commit.